U.S. Open: Breaking Down The Women's Bracket
by Thomas Golianopoulos
For years, conversations about the women’s game have revolved around players missing from the tour — past Grand Slam champions Justine Henin, Martina Hingis, Kim Clijsters and Amelie Mauresmo all retired young. Henin, Hingis and Clijsters unretired. Henin and Hingis have since re-retired. Clijsters, who has stuck around and won three Grand Slams during her comeback, is not in New York this week, having withdrawn with a stomach muscle injury. That leaves the returning Serena Williams as the favorite during this fortnight. But what about world No.1 Caroline Wozniacki? Is she the latest in a long line of pretenders — Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic, Dinara Safina — that have held the top spot in Williams’ absence? Or will she win her first Grand Slam at the Open?
CAROLINE WOZNIACKI’S QUARTER
Caroline Wozniacki (1) is “a pusher.” That’s an insider term used to describe a player whose game relies primarily on retrieval and defense. A pusher typically wins points when their opponent makes a mistake. They hit few winners and even fewer unforced errors. It’s passive tennis and it’s kind of boring. It also doesn’t win major tournaments. Wozniacki is the No. 1 player in the world but is, famously, without a Grand Slam title. (She does, however, have a new boyfriend.) Her best chance so far came back in January at the Australian Open but she flamed out against Li Na in the semifinals. Since losing early at Wimbledon, Wozniacki has tried to incorporate a little more aggressiveness into her game and has been rushing the net more often, but the results have been poor. Still, she has a good chance to emerge from her quarter. Jarmila Gajdosova (29) is bizarro-Wozniacki: She’s a touch too reckless. She’s also had a tumultuous year off the court. Li Na (6) is a potential quarterfinal opponent for Wozniacki but she’s struggled since capturing this year’s French Open. That could open things up for Andrea Petkovic (10), the delightful German with the best victory celebration in the sport. (She changes the dance each tournament.) If her shaky serve holds up, Petkovic, who is supremely fit and can hammer the ball from both her backhand and forehand wing, is a favorite to make the semifinals.
Must-See First Round Match: Li Na (6) vs. Simona Halep
Li Na goes for broke a little too often but is a crowd pleaser, while Halep is a promising 19 year old from Romania capable of an upset.
Potential Early Upset: 1st Round, Sara Errani over Svetlana Kuznetsova (15)
Kuzie is a two-time Grand Slam champion (2004 U.S. Open, 2009 French Open) and one of the streakiest players on tour. If she’s a touch off, she’ll spray unforced errors all over the court.
Quarterfinal: Caroline Wozniacki (1) vs. Andrea Petkovic (10)
Both players have glaring flaws in their game but their fitness and defense should carry them past the round of 16.
Semifinalist: Petkovic (10)
Even when Wozniacki is assertive at the start of a match, she tends to revert back to being a pusher during big moments.
VICTORIA AZARENKA’S QUARTER
Pity poor Victoria Azarenka (4). She was the big loser following last week’s draw when she pulled a potential third round match with Serena Williams (28), the most dominant player in the game. Consider it karma for her hideous grunting. Azarenka is a very good player and capable of a deep run but, considering her 1–5 lifetime mark against Williams, will be a huge underdog. This will be Williams first time at the Open since her ugly, profane tirade against a lineswoman in the 2009 semifinals. A mysterious foot injury sidelined her for nearly a year but she’s quickly returned to form with dominant titles this summer in Montreal and San Diego and should steamroll to the semifinals. (Never mind that “toe injury.”) 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone (7) and Serbs Ana Ivanovic (16) and Jelena Jankovic (11) are also in this quarter.
Must-See First Round Match: Reka-Luca Jani vs. Sloane Stephens
A glimpse of the post-Williams Sister Era as the 17 year-old Stephens makes her main draw U.S. Open debut.
Potential Early Upset: 2nd Round, Gisela Dulko over Victoria Azarenka (4)
Azarenka might not even reach her third round date with Williams; Dulko upended Azarenka in their last three matches, including a second-round clash at last year’s U.S. Open.
Quarterfinal: Serena Williams (28) vs. Jelena Jankovic (11)
Jankovic played inspiring tennis making the finals earlier this month in Cincinnati…
Semifinalist: Williams (28)
…but lacks the necessary firepower needed to hurt Williams.
MARIA SHARAPOVA’S QUARTER
Maria Sharapova still hasn’t fully recovered from the devastating shoulder injury that sidelined her for a good chunk of 2008 and 2009. She still destroys anything hit short in the court and can end points with her forehand at will. But her serve hasn’t regained its pre-surgery form. Case in point: Yesterday against Heather Watson, a teenager ranked outside the Top 100, Sharapova served five aces, eight double faults and had her serve broken five times. She’ll need to improve that facet of her game to advance into the second week because Agnieszka Radwanska (12) and Julia Goerges (19) lurk down the line. At least, Sharapova won’t have to go through the woman that defeated her in this year’s Wimbledon finals, Petra Kvitova (5). The big lefty continued her post-Wimbledon hangover with an uninspiring straight sets loss to Alexandra Dulgheru on Monday.
Must-See Second Round Match (First Round is Completed): Julia Goerges (19) vs. Laura Pous-Tio
Goerges has the most potential from anyone remaining in this quarter.
Potential Early Upset: 2nd Round, Tsvetana Pironkova over Shuai Peng (13)
Initially, this was Lucie Safarova (27) over Kvitova in the third round but then this happened. Pironkova saves her best for the majors.
Quarterfinal: Agnieszka Radwanska (12) vs. Maria Sharapova (3)
Radwanska took Sharapova down in the 3rd round of the 2007 U.S. Open…
Semifinalist: Sharapova (3)
…but has lost to her in their six meetings since then.
VERA ZVONAREVA’S QUARTER
This section of the draw epitomizes the weird, unpredictable present state of women’s tennis. Last year’s finalist Vera Zvonareva (2) is the highest seed and does everything well — serving, groundstrokes, movement. She can, however, get unnerved at times. Marion Bartoli (8) is an eccentric genius with tons of moxie — her victory over Serena Williams at this year’s Wimbledon was an inspiring triumph — and, unfortunately, an equal amount of inconsistencies. Samantha Stosur (10) flaunts a fearsome serve and forehand combo, but, for some reason, has regressed following her run to the 2010 French Open final. There’s also a talented youngster (Sabine Lisicki), a steady, unspectacular veteran (Nadia Petrova) and a seven-time Grand Slam champion that has played three tournaments all year (the unseeded Venus Williams).
Must-See Second Round Match: Venus Williams vs. Sabine Lisicki (22)
Williams will have to shake the rust off early. This match’s winner is the favorite to make the quarterfinals.
Potential Early Upset: 2nd Round, Christina McHale over Marion Bartoli (8)
McHale is a young American that scored an impressive win earlier this month over world No. 1 Caroline Wozniacki.
Quarterfinal: Nadia Petrova (24) vs. Sabine Lisicki (22)
Again, this is the most volatile quarter in the women’s draw. Petrova and Lisicki have both had decent summer seasons and there’s always a dark horse, right?
Semifinalist: Lisicki (22)
Lisicki is one of the few players that can win loads of free points on her serve.
Semifinals
Williams (28) over Petkovic (10)
Williams will devour Petkovic’s weak second serve and apply pressure from the opening game.
Sharapova (3) over Lisicki (22)
This would be a rematch of this summer’s Wimbledon semifinal. Expect a similar score line: Sharapova in straight sets.
Finals
Williams (28) over Sharapova (3)
Sharapova is one of the few players that can hang with Williams from the baseline but Williams has the best serve in the history of women’s tennis to fall back on.
Thomas Golianopoulos is a writer living in New York City whose work has appeared in The New York Times, New York Observer, Spin, Vibe and a few other places. You can follow him on Twitter.
Photo by The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas.