Down To Four

Down To Four

Let’s gloss over the fact that I blew the last round. Everyone thought the Lakers would win easily and I merely went with the crowd. That’s the simplest explanation for how I misread that situation so thoroughly. Allow me to explain: I had the Celtics favored, sure, but I’d been worried all season that their trading of Kendrick Perkins would ultimately cost them against the Heat. (And it did.) The Thunder was my pre-season (trust me), mid-season, and pre-playoff pick to emerge from the Western Conference. The Memphis Grizzlies pushed them about as far as they could, but the Thunder rotation is eight deep. James Harden and Nick Collison were the mostly unsung heroes of the series. And Kendrick Perkins is moving on, while Danny Ainge’s team is sitting home, aging. (Don’t get me started.) We already know about the Lakers making me look foolish. But who could’ve know what was happening behind the scenes? (Besides Kobe’s wife Vanessa, of course.)

I also thought the Hawks would topple the Bulls, ignoring the fact that they play in Atlanta, the City of Runners-up. Playing against the favored Magic in the first round, they rewarded my faith. But the Bulls, playing far more physically than they did against the Pacers, persevered against Atlanta in a very competitive six-game series. Maybe the Pacers series was a wake-up call for the team with the NBA’s best record. It can’t have been fun getting pushed around by the likes of Jeff Foster, who I had figured was long retired and working in insurance.

In any case, the Conference Finals feature compelling storylines. In the Western Conference, the NBA brass has to choose between praying for an oddly coiffed, nudgy owner (Mark Cuban) in an American Girl-sized t-shirt and a city (Oklahoma City) whose skyline is less significant than Hogsmeade’s and whose entire fan base looks like the audience from “Jersey Boys.” And in the East, it’s the “Big Three” versus the “Big One” — easier to digest.

The Bulls — as was shown last night in a stirring 103–82 victory in Game One — will be a formidable opponent for the Miami Heat; the odds-makers may even favor the team. I know the majority of basketball fans will be in Chicago’s corner. I tweeted last week that rooting for the Heat was like rooting for CEO pay increases and that LeBron James was the Lloyd Blankfein of the NBA. Both true.

I’ll be rooting hard for the Bulls to overwhelm the Heat. Over the course of the season, they’ve been the far better team. Chicago should win the series and, I think they will win, convincingly so. The Heat is only three players deep — James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh — and the Bulls defense is all about challenging and swarming, wearing teams out in the fourth quarter. You need to have a bench to play against the Bulls, and the Heat has only the calcified remains of the 2004 season on theirs. The Heat has two superstars, a third guy with a very small head; equal parts talent and dickishness fuel the team as the players want to prove everyone wrong. But, at this point in the season, “us against the world” doesn’t get you there. And no one said they were bad players; just bad people. There’s a difference.

Still, it won’t be easy. Luol Deng needs to alleviate some of the scoring pressure that Derrick Rose feels, Carlos Boozer must be able to rebound and box defenders out, giving Joakim Noah the freedom to step out further from the paint and help challenge BronBron’s shots, and Kyle Korver has to effectively fill the John Paxson/Steve Kerr role by hitting 60% of his shots. Yet the Bulls, who have gotten better as the playoffs have gone on, are way too deep and too strong for Miami and the Heat’s dream of “three against the world” dies in Game Six, in front of their aged, disinterested fan base in their corny white t-shirts.

The Dallas Mavericks have shocked me and proved me wrong every step of the way this season, so I am hard-pressed to bet against them again. But… I am. On paper, they are the most experienced and well-rested team. Dirk Nowitzi isn’t one of the Top 10 players of all time, as his head coach Rick Carlisle mutton-headedly claimed last week; but he is tough to match up with, and he has finally learned how to make his teammates better. To that end, I’ve never seen Jason Kidd shoot more accurately, and the way recovered bruiser Shawn Marion has transformed himself into a relatively fleet-footed small forward is a testament to sublimating one’s ego. I’ve been taking shots at Jason Terry for as long as he has been playing, but he kept his emotions in check this postseason, especially versus Los Angeles, and his shooting stroke is as undeniable as that airplane thing he does after hitting treys is annoying. Peja Stojaković, who is old enough to remember the Lakers-Kings wars at this decade’s outset, is putting a fine cap on his career. And Tyson Chandler is emerging, finally. They look like champions.

And yet… for all the reasons I have already stated over the past few weeks, I believe that the Thunder will prevail. It’s their year. They have the size, speed and young legs to keep pressuring the Mavericks. They will emerge from another closely contested series, probably in seven games.

So there you have it: the NBA will be looking at an Oklahoma City-Chicago matchup for the Finals. Two exciting, young teams filled with likeable players to attract the interest of even the most cynical among us. And the outcome of that series? I haven’t the foggiest.

Tony Gervino is a New York City-based editor and writer obsessed with honing his bio to make him sound quirky. He can also be found here

Photo by Keith Allison.