U.S. Open: Breaking Down The Men's Bracket

U.S. Open: Breaking Down The Men’s Bracket

by Thomas Golianopoulos

Novak Djokovic and Serena Williams are the clear favorites at this year’s U.S. Open. Djokovic is playing at an insanely high level and has distanced himself from the rest of the Big Four — Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray. And as far as the women, the withdrawal of two-time defending champ Kim Clijsters clears the path for Serena Williams to win her fourth U.S. Open title. But since both Djokovic and Williams suffered injuries at a recent warm-up tournament, it might be premature to dispense trophies just yet. Some questions remain: Can Andy Murray somehow get by Djokovic to win the big one? Do any American males have a shot? Will Gavin Rossdale make an appearance? Who is ripe for an upset? Which matches should you DVR? And, most importantly, who will win? Today, we’ll pick apart the men’s draw; more on the women tomorrow.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC’S QUARTER
Djokovic is in the midst of a dream season: 57–2, two Grand Slam titles, five Masters 1000 shields and one star-making performance on “The Tonight Show.” So, how did he evolve from the third wheel in the Federer-Nadal duopoly to world No. 1? He’s winning more free points off his serve, and his movement, which was already tops in the sport, is now off the charts. (Credit for the latter goes to a gluten-free diet. “I have lost some weight but it’s only helped because my movement is much sharper now,” he said in April. We smell a marketing opportunity!) Simply put: Djokovic gets to every ball and returns it with depth. It’s awfully intimidating and dispiriting for opponents.

But that narrative took an unexpected turn when Djokovic retired with a shoulder injury in the final of the Cincinnati Masters. He had trouble stretching out wide for his forehand and serving. This is disconcerting. Shoulder injuries can screw with the mechanics of a serve — see Sharapova, Maria — but Djokovic says that he’ll be fine. If he’s close to 100%, he should reach the semifinals. Gael Monfils (7) doesn’t have the weapons to win a 5-setter against Djokovic and Tomas Berdych (9) is too unpredictable. Richard Gasquet (13) is a player to watch simply for aesthetics: He lacks the disposition required to make a deep run but, oh, that one-hand backhand is so pretty!

Must-See First Round Match: Gael Monfils (7) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Nicknamed “Showtime,” Dimitrov is one of the most promising young players on tour. Expect lots of flair from the kid who’s also been dubbed “Baby Federer.”

Potential Early Upset: 3rd Round, Janko Tipsarevic (20) over Tomas Berdych (9)
Tipsarevic is one of the most interesting players on tour — he loves Nietzsche and has a Dostoevsky quote (“Beauty will save the world”) tattooed on his left arm. That’s all well and good, but, more importantly, he’s a scrapper and 3–0 lifetime against Berdych.

Quarterfinal: Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Gael Monfils (7)
Monfils gave Djokovic fits earlier this month in Cincinnati (3–6, 6–4, 6–3) but tends to shrink against the top players in majors.

Semifinalist: Djokovic (1)
62–2

ROGER FEDERER’S QUARTER
It’s been jarring witnessing Federer’s descent from being the world’s most dominant athlete. That said, he’s still the third best player in the sport and always capable of magic. No one else has his variety of shots or soft-hands at the net (or, for that matter, the support of Gavin Rossdale, Gwen Stefani and Anna Wintour) and he can still end points at any time and from any angle. If his first serve is pumping, watch out. If not, he’ll be quite vulnerable, especially with his killer draw. The landmines appear early and often: Federer might face Thomaz Bellucci, a lefty who hits with bundles of topspin, in the second round. In case you haven’t heard, Federer struggles against lefties with barreling topspin. His third-round opponent could be Bernard Tomic, Ryan Harrison or Marin Cilic (27). Tomic, who plays like a young Andy Murray, would be the most intriguing match-up from a tactical standpoint. A potential fourth-round match between Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11) and the top American player Mardy Fish (8) should decide Federer’s fate. Fish is playing the best tennis of his career but it’s hard to imagine him taking three out of five sets from the great Federer. Advantage Tsonga: He defeated Federer earlier this summer in the Wimbledon quarterfinals.

Must-See First Round Match: Radek Stepanek (23) vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
Stepanek is a joy to watch. He’s a quirky player and one of the last natural net-rushers in the game.

Early Potential Upset: 1st Round, Ryan Harrison over Marin Cilic (27)
The 19-year-old Harrison is pegged as The Next Great American. He’s brash, petulant, possesses a big serve and tons of self-belief. Cilic, meanwhile, has struggled with his forehand and, puzzlingly, his intensity since his semifinal run at the 2010 Australian Open. During a match’s tense moments, the disinterested Cilic looks like he’d rather be smoking cigarettes outside of the Croatian bar around the corner from my apartment.

Quarterfinal: Roger Federer (3) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (11)
Federer is the greatest player of all time but Tsonga blasted him off the court twice — at Wimbledon and in the third round in Montreal — this summer.

Semifinalist: Tsonga (11)
That third set beat down in Montreal (7–6, 4–6, 6–1) might be telling. If Tsonga is fresh and healthy, his power might again overwhelm Federer.

ANDY MURRAY’S QUARTER
Despite winning last month’s ATP Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati, Murray, the greatest male player to never win a Grand Slam tournament, comes in a little under the radar. His first test should be Feliciano Lopez (25) in the third round. Lopez possesses a huge lefty serve and great bone structure but not much else. (Murray’s mom, Judy, however, is a big fan. On her Twitter account, she’s referred to the Spaniard as “Deliciano” Lopez.) Murray could then avenge last year’s early exit with a potential 4th round match against his 2010 conqueror Stanislas Wawrinka (14). 2009 Champion Juan Martin Del Potro (18) looms in a potential quarterfinal. Del Potro, who missed last year’s U.S. Open (and basically the entire season) with a wrist injury, has rebuilt his ranking after falling to no. 485 but his play has plateaued a bit this summer.

Must-See First Round Match: John Isner (28) vs. Marcos Baghdatis
Both have a tendency for long, unforgettable matches and for the second time in less than a week, Isner will face the maddeningly inconsistent Greek Cypriot.

Potential Early Upset: 2nd Round, Alex Bogomolov Jr. over Robin Soderling (6)
A few years back, Bogomolov Jr. was virtually out of the game and teaching tennis out in the Hamptons. He’s collected some impressive scalps this year (Murray in Miami, Tsonga in Cincinnati) and now ranked a career-high 44. Soderling is a big-hitting terror but has missed some time with injury.

Quarterfinal: Juan Martin Del Potro (18) vs. Andy Murray (4)
A classic contrast of styles: Del Potro slugs monstrous groundstrokes while Murray relies on retrieving and counterpunching. The fact that these guys don’t like each other much spices up the proceedings.

Semifinalist: Murray (4)
Murray leads the head-to-head 5–1 and Del Potro’s fitness is a bit untested in best-of-five set matches.

RAFAEL NADAL’S QUARTER
The defending champion has a cupcake draw. Nadal’s first round opponent is Andrey Golubev, a guy that had an 18-match losing streak earlier this season. It should get tougher afterwards. But it won’t. Nadal will probably face either the Croatian slugger Ivan Ljubicic or David Nalbandian in the third round. Both are old, oft-injured and have, um, to put it kindly, problems with their mobility. (Okay, okay, they’re slow and/or overweight.) The rest of the seeded players in the draw also have issues: Mikhail Youzhny (16) and Jurgen Melzer (17) have had poor hard-court seasons; David Ferrer (5) is recovering from a left hand injury; Nicolas Almagro (10) can’t break serve and is a little nutty to boot; and Andy Roddick (21, not a typo) is the same tragic Andy Roddick (more on him later in the week).

Must-See First Round Match: James Blake vs. Jean-Rene Lisnard
Though way past his prime, Blake still plays an entertaining brand of high-risk tennis and it’s always kind of neat watching him at his hometown tournament. Hopefully, the J-Block — his loud, slightly obnoxious cheering section — will accompany him.

Potential Early Upset: 1st Round, Ernests Gulbis over Mikhail Youzhny (16)
The 53rd ranked Gulbis is a talented head case with a colorful history and is on a roll after winning last month’s Farmer’s Classic in Los Angeles.

Quarterfinal: David Ferrer (5) vs. Rafael Nadal (2)
Ferrer took out Nadal at the 2007 U.S. Open and in Australia earlier this year…

Semifinalist: Nadal (2)
 …but Rafa struggled with injuries during each match. If healthy, Nadal will advance to his 4th consecutive U.S. Open semifinal.

SEMIFINALS

Djokovic (1) over Tsonga (11)
Tsonga lacks the patience and nuance needed to defeat Djokovic. At this point, no one can hit through his defense. 63–2

Murray (4) over Nadal (2)
This is a push but Murray can beat Nadal on hard courts — 2008 U.S. Open semifinals, 2010 Australian Open quarterfinals — and had a better summer on the hard stuff.

FINALS
Djokovic (1) over Murray (4)
Murray has to eventually win a Grand Slam, right? It’s tempting to pick him here because Djokovic’s shoulder injury is concerning but to quote Sports Illustrated writer Jon Wertheim (quoting tennis great Mats Wilander): “You can’t be favored to win a Slam until you’ve won a Slam.” 64–2

Thomas Golianopoulos is a writer living in New York City whose work has appeared in The New York Times, New York Observer, Spin, Vibe and a few other places. You can follow him on Twitter.

Photo by The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas.