Leggo My Bracket

Leggo My Bracket

Details of the Second Official Awl NCAA Bracket Tournament Challenge — remember last year? — are coming later today! [UPDATE: It’s here!] In preparation, our college-ball expert, JL Weill, offers some guidance on filling out your bracket.

[INTRO FOR COLLEGE HOOPS FANS] Oh joyest of joys, the NCAA brackets are out and that can only mean one thing: the actual tournament games are only days away! I wait the entire year for this, my unofficial national holiday. A few years back, I decided that if I was going to have to work every Memorial Day and Fourth of July (I was working for a major sports league), then by golly I was going to take off the first day of the tournament. This worked out only sometimes — but it did make me really happy when it did. Partially because that holiday usually included spicy wings and/or something unspeakable in “popper” form.

After the games themselves, the second best thing about the NCAA tournament is of course filling out the brackets and then watching them crumble, along with your ego, to pieces. Aren’t you glad you stayed up to watch Gonzaga-Pepperdine games only to see that it made zero difference? And yet this is also when you get to see so much basketball it makes you want to puke rainbows of awesome.

Well, it’s finally here. And below I’ve got some a-plus pointers to help you as you navigate that soon-to-be-a-paper-airplane bracket. But since you love hoops, it’s all good. You won’t equate your success in a bracket pool to your success as a person, right? RIGHT?!

[INTRO FOR THE REST OF YOU] So you’ve decided to pay attention to college basketball for the only time all year? Welcome! Sure, it’s not as fun as NFL labor talks, nor as exhilarating as game 56 of the Orioles’ season, but now that the brackets are out, that can only mean one thing: un-licensed sports gambling! You wait the entire year for this, your unofficial bettor’s fix and/or month-long taunting session. We’re all really glad you could join us. Really glad… no, seriously.

The best thing for you about the NCAA tournament is, of course, filling out your brackets and then on each of the next few Mondays double fist-pumping in the face of the occupant of the desk next to yours, that nice lady with all the Asian decorations in her cube who smells vaguely of pecans. Thank God you didn’t bother to stay up and watch any basketball games at all this year, because who cares? You’ll still whip the pants off anyone else in the pool because (a) you have “it” and (b) they suck rocks.

Well, just in case you’ve forgotten how a pencil works, I’ve got some Dos and Don’ts for you, too, person we all secretly hate. Now stop IMing me insults and start paying attention. Shit’s about to get real, dawg.

DO
Resist the urge to pick teams based on their mascots. Yes, it seems illogical that a buckeye — that is, a nut — could beat every other mascot and win the national title when there are so many more formidable mascots out there, such as badgers and wildcats and angry Irish stereotypes. All of which are not only clearly more aggressive, but which also have, you know, legs. But you’re missing the point here. The point is, that Ohio State has every weapon most national championship teams possess: shooters, inside scoring, rebounding, senior leadership, coaching, interior depth — so don’t be afraid to pick the Buckeyes to win it all.

DON’T
Pick the Buckeyes to win it all. Why? Because everyone else probably will. And when you’re trying to win a bracket pool, you will need something to make your bracket stick around the leaderboard if the Buckeyes go down (which isn’t impossible at all). There are five or six other legitimate national title picks, not to mention some off-the-radar ones: Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Notre Dame, Pitt… Being original can bring you happiness. At least that’s what I’ve been telling myself for years.

DO
Take seriously the teams from smaller conferences with good seeds (i.e., numbers smaller than 10). Schools like George Mason and Old Dominion are fully capable of winning at least one, if not more, games in this tournament. Particularly pay attention to mid-major teams with good upperclassman centers and point guards who don’t turn the ball over. Basically, I’m saying pick Old Dominion to win a game or two, possibly even over #1 seed Pitt.

DON’T
Fall in love with trying to pick all the upsets in the first two rounds. Every year some guy in your bracket will get a few lucky breaks and pick almost all of the upset games right and think he’s hot stuff because he’s leading the pool after the first round or two. And almost every year that same guy will finish in the middle of the pack because he’ll fall prey to trying to outsmart everyone. In the end, big schools will invariably occupy most, if not all, of the final eight spots in the field, so tread lightly on picking upsets. Those teams will likely only win that first game anyway, so best reserve your Sweet 16 and Elite Eight for the big boys. You won’t lose as many points from not getting those two random-ass Sweet 16 teams as you will from picking against Duke, Kansas, Ohio State et al in the early rounds. That said…

DO
Believe in miracles. It’s what makes the NCAA tournament the best sporting event in America. Kids with no business making 35-foot jumpers will hit them this weekend. Guys who are playing their last week of organized basketball in their life will play like pros, while future All-Stars will sleepwalk. So when Indiana State, Utah State or Bucknell is within five points late in a first-round game with Big Seed U., don’t be that surprised. Dreams do come true. Except that dream where you live in a world of edible buildings made of mozzarella sticks. That one is actually troubling (even if delicious).

DON’T
Believe all of the hype. The Big East is a great conference, it’s true. But it’s also chronically overrated because it has so many teams and so many announcers either graduated from those schools, wish they had, or their golfing buddy did. While it’s not impossible the Big East will have one or more teams in the Final Four, each of the Big East teams is, in my view, too fundamentally flawed to win it all. Only one of the teams’ flaws, however, wears turtlenecks and is named “Mike Brey.”

DO
Discount the PAC-10 teams. They’re not any good and will not be around long.

DON’T
Overlook teams that have been inconsistent and are young but field multiple future NBA players, especially in the middle rounds. Translation: if you’re not sure whom to pick in a second- or third-round matchup, go with North Carolina, Kentucky, Syracuse or University of Connecticut. Talent may not win every time, but it sure helps. Elite athletes can help make up for defensive shortcomings or an off-shooting night in a one-game situation.

DO
Take each game seriously. The great equalizer of the NCAAs vs. the NBA is that it’s a one-game playoff each time out. You don’t have to be an NCAA champion to play one awesome game. So as you’re filling out the bracket, look beyond name recognition and conference reputation. Try to evaluate the teams themselves and how well they match up. On paper, Texas should throttle tiny Oakland (Michigan, not California). And they very well may. But maybe you didn’t know that Oakland went 17–1 in its conference. Or that it has one of the nation’s best centers. Or that it beat Tennessee in Knoxville. Ditto for Belmont against Wisconsin or Morehead State vs. Louisville. Sure, the well-known team is expected to win. But there are reasons every team is in, and sometimes it’s easy to overlook that when you see the names on the front of the jerseys.

DON’T
Panic. In 2005, I got murdered in my first two rounds. So badly that I stopped paying any attention. But the real points in any bracket pool come not from the first few rounds, but in the last three. That year, I finished with seven of the final eight correct and ended up winning the pool when UNC bested Illinois. Beyond avoiding picking too many upsets (see above), don’t forget that sometimes whole regions get blown apart and even the playing field for those folks whose brackets looked done after opening weekend.

DO
Be wary of plodding teams. Teams that play motion offense/flex offense (namely, Wisconsin, Georgetown and Vanderbilt) or that generally play offense in the low-60s (Pitt, Temple, this year’s Michigan State team) tend to play down to the level of their opponent. Some may win 30 games, but many of those are by seven or fewer points. This sort of uber-controlled game can backfire in the NCAAs, where little schools with nothing to lose can hang with teams lacking electric offenses.

DON’T
Bet against Duke out of emotion. It seems every year the brackets line-up Duke with what should be a potential upset, but it rarely pans out that way. This year it’s Michigan or Tennessee. While Michigan played well of late, they waste possessions, and Duke will kill them on turnovers. Tennessee is sloppy on offense, too, but more intriguing. The Vols have talent and can play multiple speeds. On the other hand, the Volunteers are vulnerable to droughts of terrible play and Duke is nothing if not irritatingly consistent. Expect the Dukies to make it through the first weekend, even if no one outside their fan base wants it to happen.

DO
Trust your gut. If you’re pretty sure of a pick, don’t second-guess yourself at the last minute. You were probably picking Team B for a reason. Sure, that reason may be that your cousin’s boyfriend’s sister who Facebook-friended you went there and you sort of like her, but that’s how the fates work, you know? It’s OK to go back and review your picks just before the deadline, but try not to over-think it. You were probably on the right track going with your libido and not your brain.

DON’T
Listen to me. I’ve been super-drunk since the brackets came out, baby. It’s tournament time! (With apologies to my family, who I look forward to seeing in about a month!)

Originally from Kentucky, JL Weill now writes from Washington, DC. His take on politics, culture and sports can be found at The New Deterrence and on Twitter.

Photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Chad J. McNeeley, U.S. Navy, via Wikipedia Commons.